Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 26.353389 28.046634 29.859008 31.954884 34.326881 36.946433 40.084086
2025-11-30 23.827436 26.127160 28.728299 31.929473 35.823474 40.491584 46.651544
2025-12-07 22.166967 24.737750 27.743512 31.589891 36.496360 42.724202 51.558887
2025-12-14 20.424377 23.047089 26.179152 30.291028 35.707510 42.864855 53.576763
2025-12-21 19.619406 22.396476 25.787759 30.364508 36.611904 45.256682 59.054736
2025-12-28 19.055503 21.984515 25.636002 30.694191 37.841962 48.203113 65.911063
2026-01-04 18.177175 21.113457 24.822971 30.050072 37.609749 48.925312 69.244870
2026-01-11 17.863104 20.938515 24.894513 30.601902 39.130489 52.506058 78.408376
2026-01-18 17.476003 20.640570 24.773297 30.856824 40.210964 55.513608 87.370628
2026-01-25 16.854832 20.000729 24.148052 30.331255 40.015261 56.306197 91.966439
2026-02-01 16.270939 19.384949 23.523365 29.761139 39.688457 56.808341 96.059064
2026-02-08 15.623304 18.659172 22.713860 28.867226 38.759519 56.091851 97.060190
2026-02-15 15.283065 18.401982 22.637143 29.213679 40.158246 60.436442 114.129583
2026-02-22 14.827764 17.974665 22.307365 29.167928 40.934325 63.869079 131.817988
2026-03-01 14.352756 17.490713 21.858289 28.882354 41.227828 66.341321 148.805849
2026-03-08 13.686315 16.710440 20.936251 27.771178 39.894078 64.958452 150.736546
2026-03-15 13.391127 16.439786 20.748645 27.834245 40.743147 68.772903 178.400155
2026-03-22 13.175905 16.271129 20.700027 28.116558 42.040636 74.054554 223.318181
2026-03-29 12.765424 15.805556 20.179621 27.564631 41.622069 74.830507 244.670194
2026-04-05 12.633535 15.736330 20.257414 28.037563 43.338479 81.967782 338.226048
2026-04-12 12.449156 15.581902 20.193782 28.255702 44.552621 88.183050 473.005739
2026-04-19 12.124059 15.208743 19.771421 27.805736 44.258985 89.587718 561.862567
2026-04-26 11.807900 14.839437 19.341172 27.316609 43.828840 90.454119 662.464843